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October 24, 2007

If Facebook is worth $10B, it is bubble 2.0

They have about $150M in revenue from what I have read.  60x sales is absurd.  Yes, I understand they are growing - fast.  But with 60% ebitda (which is sure to fall as they get larger), that means putting on a well-over 100x multiple. 

What if they do not keep growing?  What if three years from now they have all but been forgotten about?  Think back ten years ago, how many of those players are still here and still thriving.  A handful.  Even if Facebook is one of them, they won't produce enough return for a buyer to justify the risk.

But we're in a new paradigm...They control the eyeballs...They've built their own Internet...Typical valuations don't apply to them.  This all sounds familiar.  Perhaps the biggest thing that tells me Facebook is currently overvalued (even if it is just talk) is Henry Blodget talking them up.  Remember that name?

As far as them crushing Google.   How?  Why?  What?  What does that even mean?

Feel free to tell me I'm wrong, just tell me why I'm wrong.

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